Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.991085 1.158165 1.344539 1.567833 1.828126 2.122029 2.479197
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.719014 0.938966 1.212395 1.577282 2.051709 2.648144 3.455895
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.564866 0.798463 1.112154 1.564205 2.199501 3.061619 4.322822
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.465083 0.701122 1.038596 1.556253 2.331182 3.450094 5.192788
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.398687 0.635392 0.992634 1.570981 2.485278 3.878015 6.167729
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.332459 0.556851 0.912292 1.516152 2.518452 4.120031 6.883470
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.310933 0.544908 0.932204 1.619706 2.812575 4.803400 8.392887
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.266934 0.487859 0.868787 1.573088 2.846398 5.058903 9.214112
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.229515 0.436279 0.806659 1.518054 2.854612 5.266237 9.971469
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.199425 0.393387 0.753564 1.470662 2.867665 5.479496 10.761838
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.183234 0.374353 0.741547 1.497912 3.022853 5.971345 12.140974
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.177971 0.375941 0.768822 1.604712 3.345891 6.821821 14.334302
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.166270 0.363302 0.767360 1.655675 3.568227 7.511823 16.318969
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.151718 0.342664 0.747024 1.665003 3.706411 8.051142 18.070449
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137052 0.319538 0.718080 1.651162 3.791593 8.487608 19.655561
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.124625 0.299607 0.693284 1.642767 3.886988 8.956998 21.377481
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.115337 0.285607 0.679832 1.658312 4.038871 9.571046 23.517593
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.102304 0.260725 0.637878 1.600440 4.008922 9.761698 24.673508
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.100752 0.263987 0.663181 1.709740 4.400192 10.998669 28.567462
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.090365 0.243284 0.627205 1.660536 4.388211 11.253254 30.017595
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.080697 0.223074 0.589797 1.602448 4.345333 11.424743 31.275800
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.072486 0.205606 0.557148 1.552427 4.316845 11.629132 32.650231
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.068596 0.199512 0.553718 1.581189 4.505583 12.427795 35.760362